FDU PublicMind - January 13, 2005 Release

Invisible Men

If one is looking for underdogs for New Jersey governor, one could certainly start with the Republican primary. According to the most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, four of six Republicans declared for governor — Paul DiGaetano, Robert Schroeder, Steven Lonegan and John J. Murphy — could not be recognized by even a third of New Jersey voters:

“There are really only two ways to achieve statewide recognition in New Jersey,” said Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the PublicMind. “One is to run for statewide office and win. The other is to run for statewide office and lose.”

Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler, who have both run and lost for statewide office before, are the two Republicans in the field with significant name recognition. Schundler and Forrester are both recognized by about two-thirds of New Jersey voters. Among Republicans, their name recognition touches three-quarters.

“Name recognition implies the possibility of winning,” said Larson, “and the possibility of winning brings campaign funds. But it also works the other way around. Those who don’t have much name recognition will find it hard to raise money and hard to get any name recognition through advertising. Candidates who need money the most have the most difficult time raising it.”

Among the 65% who have heard of Bret Schundler, 43% say they have a favorable opinion, 18% say their opinion is unfavorable, and 40% say they’re not sure. Among Republicans who have voted in a primary before, 62% say they have a favorable view of Schundler, while only 7% say they have an unfavorable view and 30% are not sure.

Of the 64% who have heard of Doug Forrester, 30% have a favorable view, 17% say their opinion of him is unfavorable, and 51% say they’re not sure. Among Republican primary voters, 52% have a favorable view of Forrester, 10% have an unfavorable view of him and 37% are not sure.

“The primary race probably boils down to Schundler and Forrester,” said Larson. “Essentially, the other candidates are practicing for a future run.”

Asked whom they prefer to win the Republican nomination in June, Bret Schundler or Doug Forrester, Schundler appears to have the edge but within the poll’s margin of error. Schundler edges Forrester by 33%-29% among Republicans who report having voted in a primary before with 34% undecided. Among all Republicans, Schundler is preferred by 30% and Forrester by 28%, with 37% not sure.

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll of 800 registered voters statewide was conducted from January 2 through January 9 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Margins of error for subset of the sample are greater.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Bruce Larson 973.769.1401

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.