Majority in Garden State Opposed to Casinos Outside of AC

Meadowlands trumps Monmouth as Favored New Site

Since New Jersey voters approved a referendum allowing gambling in Atlantic City in 1976, the Atlantic County city has been the only site of legal casinos in the state. With the increasing difficulties of casinos in Atlantic City, there has been renewed discussion of expansion to other sites around the state. However, according to the latest results from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll, most New Jersey residents remain opposed to any expansion, though, if asked to choose, they prefer a casino in the Meadowlands to one at Monmouth Park Racetrack.

Currently, New Jersey residents are split on the question of allowing casino gambling outside of Atlantic City, with 42 percent in favor of expansion, and 50 percent opposed. Younger residents – those under 35 – are the most likely to favor expansion, supporting it by a 52-38 margin, while voters over 60 are the least likely, opposing it 56-36. Interestingly, voters who had been to a casino in the previous 12 months were not significantly more likely to support additional casino venues in the state than those who had not been to a casino in the recent past.

“New Jersey has a couple of reasons to be skeptical about opening new casinos outside of Atlantic City,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and an analyst for the poll. “Increased competition is only going to hurt Atlantic City more, and casinos just aren’t the revenue source for the state that they were ten or fifteen years ago.”

In addition, respondents were asked about specific sites where casino gambling could come if it were allowed: the Meadowlands and Monmouth Park Racetrack. Of the two, the Meadowlands is a bit more popular, with residents narrowly favoring a casino at the Bergen County facility, 47 percent to 45 percent. The idea of a casino at the Meadowlands was especially popular among people who had visited Atlantic City in the past year, with 61 percent favoring such a venue, compared to 43 percent of residents who hadn’t visited any casino recently.

“New Jersey is faced with a quandary in this situation. Adding strategic gambling sites outside of Atlantic City will recover millions of dollars in gaming revenue lost to bordering states but will negatively affect gaming revenue in Atlantic City,” said Donald Hoover senior lecturer at Fairleigh Dickinson University's International School of Hospitality and Tourism Management.

A slightly smaller figure of 43 percent support having a casino at Monmouth, with 44 percent opposing. As with the Meadowlands, Garden State residents who have been to Atlantic City in the past year are more likely to support opening a casino at the Monmouth racetrack, with 52 percent favoring it, compared with 40 percent who haven’t visited a casino.

“The Monmouth racetrack is less than two miles from the beach,” said Cassino. “It looks like another casino on the shore is a tougher sell.”

Added Hoover: “The Meadowlands, located within minutes of the most densely populated region in the Northeast, has the potential to be a powerhouse revenue generator for New Jersey and a leading casino on the entire eastern seaboard.”

Although the problems in Atlantic City have become more pronounced in the past few years, public support for the expansion of casino gambling has been remarkably stable over time. In 2010, 42 percent of New Jersey – exactly the same figure as now – supported opening casinos outside of Atlantic City. There has been some movement, though: in 2009, only 24 percent favored expansion.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 819 New Jersey residents 18 and older was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from July 14 through July 21, 2014, and has a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from July 14 through July 20, 2014 using a randomly selected sample of 819 residents 18 and older. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The following tables are based on all respondents in the sample.

Tables

AC1. Right now casino gambling in New Jersey is limited to Atlantic City. Do you favor or oppose expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state? [response order randomized]
	All	Age			Gender		Casino in Last 12 Months
	Total	18-34	35-59	60+	Male	Female	None	Casino, Not AC	AC
Favor	42%	52	41	36	48	36	40	44	51
Oppose	50%	38	53	56	46	53	50	51	44
DK/Ref (vol)	8%	10	6	8	6	11	10	4	5

AC2. What about the Meadowlands .... do you favor or oppose licensing casinos in the Meadowlands? [response order randomized]
	All	Age			Gender		Casino in Last 12 Months
	Total	18-34	35-59	60+	Male	Female	None	Casino, Not AC	AC
Favor	47%	58	47	37	53	40	43	50	61
Oppose	45%	33	47	55	40	50	46	46	37
DK/Ref (vol)	8%	8	7	8	6	10	11	4	2

AC3. What about Monmouth Park Race Track .... do you favor or oppose licensing casinos at Monmouth Park Race Track? [response order randomized]
	All	Age			Gender		Casino in Last 12 Months
	Total	18-34	35-59	60+	Male	Female	None	Casino, Not AC	AC
Favor	43%	52	43	37	46	41	40	47	52
Oppose	44%	29	47	53	42	46	45	45	35
DK/Ref (vol)	13%	19	10	10	12	13	15	7	13

AC1. Right now casino gambling in New Jersey is limited to Atlantic City. Do you favor or oppose expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state? [response order randomized]
	Jul-14	Jun-10	Feb-09
Favor	42%	42	24
Oppose	50%	49	70
DK/Ref (vol)	8%	9	6

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 saved for subsequent release

NJ1 and NJ2 released July 22, 2014

EDUC1 through EDUC7 released July 23, 2014

R2D1 through R2D3 released July 28, 2014

BG1 through BG4 released July 22, 2014

AC1 Right now casino gambling in New Jersey is limited to Atlantic City. Do you favor or oppose expanding casino gambling to other areas in the state?

1 Favor

2 Oppose

9 DK/Ref (vol)

AC2 What about the Meadowlands… do you favor or oppose licensing casinos in the Meadowlands?

1 Favor

2 Oppose

9 DK/Ref (vol)

AC3 What about Monmouth Park Racetrack… do you favor or oppose licensing casinos at Monmouth Park Racetrack?

1 Favor

2 Oppose

9 DK/Ref (vol)

AC4 In the last 12 months have you been to a casino? [IF “yes” ASK “Where did you go most recently?”]
1 Yes

2 No

9 DK/Ref (vol)

DO NOT READ
Atlantic City
Pennsylvania (Mt Airy or Bethlehem)
Connecticut (Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun)
Yonkers (Empire City)

New York City (Resorts World@Aqueduct)
Delaware (Wilmington or Dover)
Las Vegas
Other

Sample Characteristics

		N = 819; MoE = +/- 3.4
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	28%
	35-59	42%
	60+	27%
	Refused	3%
Race	White	63%
	African American	12%
	Hispanic	16%
	Asian	5%
	Other/Refused	4%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	43%
	Ind/DK/Refused	25%
	Repub	33%

PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

Majority in Garden State Opposed to Casinos Outside of AC

Meadowlands trumps Monmouth as Favored New Site