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For immediate release Monday, October 27, 2014                

Contact:
Krista Jenkins  973.443.8390 kjenkins@fdu.edu
Michael Avaltroni 973.443.8403 malvatro@fdu.edu

New Jerseyans can’t turn away from Ebola coverage

New Jerseyans are riveted to news coverage of Ebola, with 96 percent following it “somewhat closely” or “very closely.” Also, registered voters are more confident in the state’s ability to handle an Ebola outbreak than they are in the federal government response.

The most recent statewide survey of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds that two-thirds (66%) give the federal government a fair or poor rating in its handling of the few Ebola cases in the U.S. When it comes to faith that the state can do things better, a majority (53%) are more optimistic.

“The results seem to clearly point to the fact that a series of high profile missteps have created a fear and distrust in the eyes of the public,” said Michael Avaltroni, dean of FDU’s School of Pharmacy. “While Ebola transmissions have, to this point, been extremely isolated, the perception has been that the federal government has been caught off guard. That, mixed with a great deal of public misinformation about the disease and its transmission patterns, has led to a great deal of concern amidst a mainstream and social media frenzy.”

There are some differences, however, in how the public perceives the government’s response. Democrats and women give more credit to the federal government than men and Republicans do. Sixty-eight percent of women say the federal government has done an excellent or good job in responding to the crisis, and 45 percent of Democrats say the same. Only men (29%), Republicans (17%) and independents (23%) evaluate the federal government positively.

“If the benchmark for success is keeping the virus at bay and not letting it explode into more areas than Dallas, Democrats and women seem reasonably pleased. Maybe Republicans and men were looking for a response that kept the virus from entering the U.S. at all. If so, their less-than-satisfied response is justified,” said Krista Jenkins, associate professor and director of the poll.

The same poll finds that many are following the outbreak closely. Almost two-thirds (64%) say they’re following the news very closely, with another third (32%) following it somewhat closely.

“It’s rare to see the public paying such close attention to anything,” said Jenkins. “Although Ebola has so far afflicted only a handful of Americans – with a case in nearby New York, and no one in New Jersey, news of the outbreak dominates stories about events that are certain to happen and closer to home. The November elections are being followed closely by one-in-seven, with a majority who barely know we’re voting in a few weeks.”

Ebola attentiveness is paying off, as 80 percent of respondents can correctly identify the way the virus is transmitted (direct contact), with a scant 12 percent who incorrectly believe it is similar to the flu with an airborne mechanism for transmission. Education helps to put to transmission in context, since those with a college degree (85%) are more likely to know it’s difficult to transmit Ebola as compared with those with less than a college degree (75%).

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 1107 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from October 13 through October 19, 2014, and has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

 

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 13 through October 19, 2014 using a randomly selected sample of 1107 registered voters who reside in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-2.9 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The following tables are based on all registered voters in the sample.

Tables

How closely are you following the news about the Ebola virus in both the US and abroad? (READ LIST)
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/ Some college	College +	18-34	35-59	60+
Very closely	64	61	61	70	64	64	65	62	66	63	44	65	77
Somewhat closely	32	36	33	28	33	32	33	32	29	34	51	32	21
Not at all closely	3	3	5	2	3	3	3	5	5	2	4	4	2
DK/Ref (vol	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0

 

In your opinion, how would you rate the job the US government is doing to keep Ebola from spreading in the United States?(READ LIST)
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/ Some college	College +	18-34	35-59	60+
Excellent	6	9	6	2	7	28	5	8	4	7	6	5	6
Good	25	36	17	15	22	30	23	30	23	26	27	23	27
Fair	27	32	28	21	24	33	27	28	25	28	32	26	26
Poor	39	21	47	58	44	4	42	29	44	36	32	42	38
DK/Ref (vol)	3	2	2	4	2	0	2	5	4	3	4	3	3

 

If someone living in New Jersey were to be diagnosed with the Ebola virus, how much confidence do you have in the state’s public health system to keep the virus from spreading? (READ LIST)
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/ Some college	College +	18-34	35-59	60+
A lot	18	26	12	12	21	16	18	20	15	20	21	15	21
Some	35	36	32	35	31	38	36	34	35	35	33	37	34
Just a little	25	23	24	29	23	28	25	28	25	25	23	28	23
None at all	17	11	27	21	21	14	18	14	21	15	20	17	17
DK/Ref (vol)	4	4	5	3	4	4	4	3	4	4	3	3	6

 

Based on what you now about the virus, is Ebola spread through the air or through direct contact with someone who is showing the symptoms of Ebola? [rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	HS/ Some college	College +	18-34	35-59	60+
Airborne	12	9	12	15	12	13	12	13	16	10	12	14	11
Direct contact	80	85	81	75	78	82	79	83	72	85	85	79	78
DK/Ref (vol	9	6	7	10	10	5	9	4	11	5	3	7	11

 

 

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 released October 21

SEN1 and SEN2 released October 21

ID released October 21

BAIL1 and BAIL2 released October 21

GS1 and GS2 released October 21

ISSUES1 through ISSUES3 released October 21

NJ1 through NJ3 released October 23

 

EB1      How closely are you following the news about the Ebola virus in both the US and abroad? (READ LIST)

1          Very closely

2          Somewhat closely

3          Not at all closely

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

EB2      In your opinion, how would you rate the job the US government is doing to keep Ebola from spreading in the United States?(READ LIST)

1          Excellent

2          Good

3          Fair

4          Poor

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

EB3      If someone living in New Jersey were to be diagnosed with the Ebola virus, how much confidence do you have in the state’s public health system to keep the virus from spreading? (READ LIST)

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          None at all

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

EB4      Based on what you now about the virus, is Ebola spread through the air or through direct contact with someone who is showing the symptoms of Ebola? [rotate]

1          Airborne

2          Direct contact

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Sample Characteristics

		Registered voters N = 1107; MoE = +/- 2.9
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	22%
	35-59	45%
	60+	31%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	68%
	African American	12%
	Hispanic	12%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	4%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	46%
	Ind/DK/Refused	18%
	Repub	36%

 

In the upcoming election for Senate, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Cory Booker, the Democrat? [rotate]
	Obama approval asked before Senate  preferences [N = 278]	Obama approval asked after Senate preferences [N = 247]
Booker	59	56
Bell	37	41
Other (vol)	0	1
Unsure (vol)	4	2
Ref (vol)	0	0

 

Regardless of how you’re going to vote, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [insert]
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unsure
Jeff Bell	29%	22%	49%
Cory Booker	57%	34%	9%

 

And if the race for U.S. Senate were between Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Bill Bradley, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?[rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Bradley	57%	95	50	16	51	63	51	78	57	59	54
Bell	36%	1	33	78	42	28	41	17	32	33	41
Other (vol)	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Unsure (vol)	7%	5	17	7	6	9	8	5	12	8	6
Ref (vol)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Do you agree or disagree [rotate] with those who argue the U.S. should value money based on the price of gold, or are you unsure?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Agree	23%	12	21	34	12	37
Disagree	32%	38	42	22	39	22
DK (vol)	46%	49	35	45	48	42
RefU.S.ed (vol)	0	1	2	0	1	0

 

Some are proposing a U.S. return to the gold standard which means paper currency would be valued according to the price of gold. How much, if at all, are you following this debate?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
A lot	10%	7	8	14	7	15
Some	19%	16	19	22	18	21
JU.S.t a little	22%	22	36	19	23	19
Not at all	49%	54	35	46	52	45
DK/Ref (vol)	0	2	2	0	1	1

 

 

 

Some say marriage is between a man and a woman, while others say members of the same sex should be allowed to marry. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Between man and woman	35%	16	30	58	15	60
Same sex marriage ok	52%	74	47	29	73	26
Both (vol)	9%	8	11	9	8	10
DK/Ref (vol)	4%	3	12	4	3	5

 

Some say climate change is manmade, while others say it is the result of normal changes in the atmosphere. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Manmade	41%	69	27	12	61	12
Normal change in atmosphere	34%	13	38	59	17	60
Both (vol)	20%	16	29	22	19	19
DK/Ref (vol)	6%	3	6	7	3	9

 

Some say divorce laws should require someone to be at fault for the breakup of a marriage, while others say couples should be free to break up without having to prove someone was at fault. [Rotate] What about you?
		PID			Senate
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Booker	Bell
Require fault	13%	10	19	15	10	18
No fault	74%	80	71	69	79	68
Both (vol)	4%	4	2	3	5	2
DK/Ref (vol)	9%	6	8	13	6	12

 

On November’s ballot voters will be asked to approve an amendment to the state constitution that would allow judges to deny bail to violent defendants who may pose a threat to public safety if released. How much have you heard or read about this proposed amendment? (READ LIST)
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
A lot	11%	9	19	10	13	9	11	11	6	11	13
Some	18%	19	17	18	20	16	21	11	11	14	27
JU.S.t a little	25%	27	26	24	26	25	24	25	23	26	25
Nothing at all	46%	45	38	47	41	50	43	53	60	49	35
DK/Ref (vol)	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1

 

If you had to vote today, would you vote yes or no on this amendment?[rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	ALL	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Yes	77%	71	79	85	77	77	79	73	73	77	79
No	11%	14	8	7	13	9	10	14	10	12	10
DK/Ref (vol)	12%	16	13	9	10	14	11	13	17	11	11

 

 

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president? [rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	40%	78	19	2	33	49	33	68	44	42	38
Disapprove	51%	9	73	94	59	42	59	22	44	50	54
DK/Ref (vol)	9%	13	8	4	8	10	8	10	12	8	8

 

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track? [rotate]
		PID			Gender		Race		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Non-white	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	30%	57	15	3	27	34	24	53	38	31	26
Wrong track	61%	26	81	95	67	54	67	36	57	61	63
DK(vol)	8%	15	4	2	5	11	8	10	6	7	10
Ref (vol)	1%	2	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	1	2

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

Note: ½ of sample asked U.S.1 and U.S.2 here; remaining half asked later in the survey

 

U.S.1               Do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK/Ref (vol)

 

U.S.2. In your opinion, do you think things in the United States are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track?[rotate]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK/Unsure (vol)

 

SEN1               In the upcoming election for Senate, which candidate are you most likely to vote

for? Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Cory Booker, the Democrat? [rotate]

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Cory Booker, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

4          Unsure [vol; ask SEN1A]

9          Refused (vol)

 

SEN1A             Which way do you lean? ROTATE NAMES

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Cory Booker, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

8          DK (vol)

 

 

 

SEN2               And if the race for U.S. Senate were between Jeff Bell, the Republican, or Bill

Bradley, the Democrat, for whom would you vote? [rotate]

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Bill Bradley, the Democrat

3          Someone else [vol]

4          Unsure [vol; ask SEN2A]

9          Refused (vol)

 

SEN2A             Which way do you lean? ROTATE NAMES

1          Jeff Bell, the Republican

2          Bill Bradley, the Democrat

3          Someone else (vol)

8          DK (vol)

 

ID                    Regardless of how you’re going to vote, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [insert] ROTATE NAMES

IDA     Jeff Bell, the Republican

IDB      Cory Booker, the Republican

 

IDA       Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

 

IDB       Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT]?

1          Favorable

2          Unfavorable

8          Don’t Know (vol) (skip to next name)

 

Still thinking about the upcoming elections….

 

BAIL1 On November’s ballot voters will be asked to approve an amendment to the state constitution that would allow judges to deny bail to violent defendants who may pose a threat to public safety if released. How much have you heard or read about this proposed amendment? (READ LIST)

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          Nothing at all

9          DK/Ref (vol)

 

BAIL2    If you had to vote today, would you vote yes or no on this amendment?[rotate]

1          Yes

2          No

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Changing topics…

 

 

 

GS1     Some are proposing a U.S. return to the gold standard which means paper currency would be valued according to the price of gold. How much, if at all, are you following this debate? Would you say you’re paying…A lot, some, just a little, or no attention at all to this issue?

1          A lot

2          Some

3          Just a little

4          No attention at all

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

GS2     Do you agree or disagree [rotate] with those who argue the U.S. should value money based on the price of gold, or are you unsure?

1          Agree

2          Disagree

3          Unsure

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

Now I’d like to ask you about some social issues…

 

ISSUES1          Some say marriage is between a man and a woman, while others say members of the same sex should be allowed to marry  [ROTATE]. What about you? Do you believe….marriage is between a man and a woman OR do you believe same sex couples should be allowed to marry; same sex couples should be allowed to marry OR marriage is between a man and a woman.

1          Marriage between man and woman

2          Members of same sex should be allowed to marry

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/Refused (vol)

 

ISSUES2          Some say climate change is manmade, while others say it is the result of normal changes in the atmosphere [ROTATE]. What about you? Is climate change…man made OR the result of normal changes in the atmosphere; the result of normal changes in the atmosphere OR manmade.

1          Manmade

2          Normal changes in the atmosphere

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/unsure (vol)

 

ISSUES3          Some say divorce laws should require someone to be at fault for the breakup of a marriage, while others say couples should be free to break up without having to prove someone was at fault [ROTATE]. What about you? Do you believe…fault should be established in a divorce OR people should be free to break up without having to prove that someone was at fault… people should be free to break up without having to prove that someone was at fault OR fault should be established in a divorce

1          Should have to prove fault

2          Should be able to break up without proving fault

3          Both (vol)

8          DK/unsure (vol)

 

 

 

Sample Characteristics

 

		Likely voters N = 525; MoE = +/- 4.3
Gender	Male	52%
	Female	48%
Age	18-34	13%
	35-59	49%
	60+	38%
	Refused	1%
Race	White	75%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	9%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	3%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	48%
	Ind/DK/Refused	11%
	Repub	42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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