PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release Tuesday, June 23                                8 pages           

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

NJ Governor and Legislature Receive Poor Marks

Christie approval rating drops six points to 30 percent

Both Governor Christie and New Jersey legislature receive poor marks from voters, and most believe weak political leadership is to blame for the spate of problems vexing the state. These and other findings emerge from the most recent statewide survey of registered voters conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

Beginning with Governor Christie, who is still mired in approval ratings that are far beneath where they should be for a presidential aspirant, 30 percent regard him favorably, with significantly more who say they disapprove (55%). His approval is down from where it was in April, the last time voters were asked to weigh in, with 36 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving.

“The good news is that none of his potential presidential opponents have emerged with a decisive lead yet. The bad news is that he is the governor in a state where a sizable majority give a thumbs down to his leadership,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

Christie approval – Trend

Other questions about the governor reveal more concern. The number of respondents who dislike everything about Christie again exceeds the percent of those who like everything about his leadership. According to the PublicMind survey, 39 percent say they dislike both the Governor and his policies, with 24 percent who say the opposite about him both personally and with regard to his policies. The gap between those who like everything versus those who dislike everything about the Governor is the largest it has been since PublicMind began asking the question. The percentage of those who like everything is down slightly from where it was in February of this year (29%).

Governor Like/Dislike -Trend

When it comes to thinking back over how opinions may have changed concerning the Governor, at least a plurality — including Republicans — say they like Christie less than when he first took office. Just over four-in-ten (42%) say their opinion of the Governor has changed for the worse since taking office. In contrast, more than one-in-ten (13%) say they’ve grown to like him more over the years. Forty-one percent say their opinion has remained unchanged.

“As difficult as these numbers may seem, they need to be understood within the context of the problems the state continues to deal with — many of which he inherited — and his place as a second term governor fighting against the usual problem of incumbent fatigue among the electorate,” said Jenkins. “And, as can be seen in some of the other numbers from this survey, the Governor is not the only one who is disappointing the electorate.”

The state legislature is also evaluated poorly. Barely a quarter (24%) of respondents approve of the job it is collectively doing in addressing the state’s problems, with many more (44%) disapproving. Democrats feel slightly less negative toward the legislature, which is not surprising given the majority of Democrats in both the state and legislature.  “But the survey paints a portrait of widespread feelings of disaffection toward state leaders,” said Jenkins.

“Voters appear to feel abandoned by their leaders. Those at the helm in state government are clearly letting those whom they represent down,” said Jenkins. “With sentiments like these, state legislators will more than likely face an unhappy electorate in a few months.”

Poor leadership is contributing to worry over the direction the state is headed, as well as what voters believe is the reason behind some of the state’s most significant problems. A clear majority say the state is moving down the wrong path. Concern over the state’s general direction (57%) greatly exceeds the percent of those who are content with the state’s overall well-being (28%).

And, when asked what voters believe is the most pressing problem, opinion is divided among a variety of options, with the public employee pension system (23%) and unemployment (21%) garnering the highest percentages. Almost half of public employee union households (45%) believe fixing the pension system is the most pressing problem compared with fewer than half (17%) of those who reside in non-union households. And the state’s youngest voters are the most concerned about unemployment in the state, with 31 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds identifying the state’s stubborn high unemployment rate as the most worrisome trend.

What is clear, however, is that 50 percent of Garden State voters say political leaders are to blame for stifling solutions to the state’s problems. Significantly fewer believe a divided public (19%) and not enough money (23%) are to blame.

“All of the state’s problems are fixable. At least according to voters, the money and political will are there. Unfortunately, they don’t see political leaders willing to stick their neck out and expend the political capital to fix them,” said Jenkins.

 

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 15-21, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 792 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 points, including design effect.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 15 through 21 using a randomly selected sample of 792 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race.  440 interviews were conducted on landlines and 352 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	30%	17	23	50	34	26	33	21	22	32	24	30	32
Disapprove	55%	70	55	35	50	60	53	60	67	51	57	56	53
Neither/ Neutral (vol)	10%	8	14	12	12	9	10	12	8	11	14	9	9
DK/Both (vol)	4%	4	7	3	4	4	3	6	3	5	5	4	4
Refused (vol)	1%	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1

 

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Rotate right direction/wrong track]
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	28%	23	22	38	31	25	28	28	21	30	29	27	27
Wrong track	57%	64	60	45	52	61	56	58	66	54	51	60	57
DK/Ref (vol)	15%	13	17	17	17	14	17	14	13	15	20	13	16

Direction of the state – trend

 

 

I’m going to read you four statements about Chris Christie. Please tell me which comes closest to your own views: 1) I like him, AND I like his policies; 2) I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies; 3) I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies; 4) I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies. RANDOMIZE BUT KEEP 1 AND 2, 3 AND 4 TOGETHER
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Like him and policies	24%	10	22	42	26	22	28	15	19	26	18	24	27
Like him but not policies	23%	21	24	28	26	21	23	26	25	23	26	22	23
Don’t like him but like policies	7%	7	7	8	9	6	8	7	6	8	10	7	6
Don’t like him or his policies	39%	56	41	16	34	45	38	43	47	37	39	41	37
DK/Refused (vol)	6%	5	7	6	6	6	4	9	3	7	6	5	7

 

Since Chris Christie became governor, would you say you’ve grown to like him more, like him less, or has your opinion remained unchanged?[/Rotate like him more and like him less]
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Like him more	13%	6	12	23	16	10	17	7	10	14	12	13	12
Like him less	42%	49	35	38	43	41	43	35	54	38	33	46	43
Both (vol)	1%	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	1	2	1	1
Opinion unchanged	41%	42	48	36	38	44	35	53	34	44	49	38	41
DK/Refused (vol)	3%	2	4	2	3	3	3	3	1	3	4	2	3

 

Do you approve or disapprove [rotate] of the job the state legislature is doing?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	24%	26	24	23	27	22	21	31	19	25	30	23	21
Disapprove	44%	41	40	51	45	43	46	40	54	41	32	49	46
Neither/ neutral (vol)	11%	13	11	9	9	13	11	11	11	11	12	11	11
DK/Both (vol)	19%	17	25	16	17	22	21	16	12	22	25	16	20
DK/Refused (vol)	2%	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	3	1	1	2	2

 

If you had to choose, which of the following do you believe is the biggest issue facing New Jersey?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Economic growth	17%	16	12	22	20	15	20	10	16	18	14	19	16
Unemploy-ment	21%	21	26	17	17	24	17	28	10	24	31	18	16
Road and bridge repairs	12%	10	19	10	13	10	12	10	5	14	14	9	14
Public employee pension system	23%	25	16	26	24	23	26	19	45	17	16	26	25
Ethics in state gov’t	16%	15	17	16	17	15	15	19	14	15	17	16	16
Other (vol)	6%	5	8	6	5	7	6	7	4	7	7	6	7
DK/Ref (vol)	4%	7	2	2	4	5	3	6	7	5	2	6	6

 

 

Which of the following do you believe is the biggest obstacle to addressing this problem?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Political leadership	50	49	57	47	55	45	51	48	57	48	48	50	50
Money	23	22	21	26	20	26	25	18	21	24	23	23	24
A divided public	19	20	18	20	21	18	18	24	15	21	21	22	15
Other (vol)	2	3	0	2	2	3	2	3	4	2	3	2	3
DK/Ref (vol)	5	6	5	5	2	8	4	6	3	6	4	4	8

Exact Question Wording and Order

 

NJ1.     And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is

doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

3          Neither [vol] or Neutral [vol]

8          DK [vol] or both [vol]

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track                

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

 

NJ3      I’m going to read you four statements about Chris Christie. Please tell me which comes closest to your own views: 1) I like him, AND I like his policies; 2) I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies; 3) I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies; 4) I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies.

            RANDOMIZE BUT KEEP 1 AND 2, 3 AND 4 TOGETHER

1          I like him, AND I like his policies

2          I like him, BUT I don’t like his policies

3          I don’t like him, BUT I like his policies

4          I don’t like him, AND I don’t like his policies

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ4      Since Chris Christie became governor, would you say you’ve grown to like him more, like him less, or has your opinion remained unchanged?[/Rotate like him more and like him less]

1          Like him more            

2          Like him less

3          Both [vol]

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

           

NJ5      Do you approve or disapprove of the job the state legislature is doing?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

3          Neither [vol] or Neutral [vol]

8          DK [vol] or both [vol]

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ6      If you had to choose, which of the following do you believe is the biggest issue facing New Jersey?

1          Economic growth

2          Unemployment

3          Road and bridge repairs

4          The public employee pension system

5          Ethics in state government

6          Other (vol)

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

 

NJ7      Which of the following do you believe is the biggest obstacle to addressing this problem?

1          Political leadership

2          Money

3          A divided public

6          Other (vol)

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		Registered voters N = 785; MoE = +/- 3.5
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	24%
	35-59	41%
	60+	33%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	66%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	15%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	5%
Union household	Self	13%
	Someone else	11%
	No/Refused/DK	76%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	44%
	Ind/DK/Refused	23%
	Repub	34%