PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release Monday, June 29                                 7 pages           

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Love ‘Em or Hate ‘Em: 2016 Presidential Hopefuls Polarize Voters

 In the eyes of New Jersey voters, the top Republican and Democratic candidates for President of the United States are also the candidates who are the most disliked according to Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

New Jersey Governor Christie may be laboring under declining approval in the state, but when it comes to his presidential prospects, New Jersey Republicans put him at the top along with former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.  Bush and Christie are tied for support among Republicans in the state at 18 percent each. Behind them is real estate developer and reality television star, Donald Trump at 11 percent. Behind them are contenders – those who have both announced their candidacy and those still considering their options – who garner support in the single digits.

Some Garden State Republicans identify Christie and Trump as candidates they would NEVER support, regardless of who the Democratic opponent turns out to be. Trump commands the condemnation of 27 percent of registered Republicans, with the Governor not too far behind (22%). Half of registered Republicans (52%) said they could identify someone whom they would never support in the general election.

“In a crowded field like the Republican crop of possible nominees, the fact that Governor Christie evokes passions on both sides at least sets him apart from others who generate a collective yawn,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton retains her lead over other prospective nominees. Almost two-thirds (63%) of registered Democrats favor her over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders (15%) and Martin O’Malley (3%). At the same time, 29 percent of Democrats categorically reject the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. However, it is important to note that as compared with Republicans, a far smaller percentage of Democrats said they could identify someone whom they would never support in the general election. One-in-five (19%) registered Democrats compared with half (52%) of registered Republicans feel strongly about saying no to one of their own.

Turning to the Obama presidency, the “same story, different day” narrative prevails. Garden State voters are divided over his leadership with 44 percent who say they approve of his job performance and 43 percent who are opposed. And, when it comes to the general health of the nation, a third (33%) say the country is on stable footing with 52 percent who believe it is headed down the wrong track. These numbers are virtually unchanged from  the past few surveys PublicMind  has conducted of registered voters in the Garden State.

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 15-21, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 792 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 points, including the design effect.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 15 through 21 using a randomly selected sample of 792 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 440 interviews were conducted on landlines and 352 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

 

Tables

I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 267; MoE = 6.3]
Jeb Bush	18%
Ben Carson	6%
Chris Christie	18%
Ted Cruz	3%
Carly Fiorina	3%
Lindsey Graham	1%
Mike Huckabee	3%
Bobby Jindal	0
John Kasich	0
George Pataki	2%
Rand Paul	5%
Rick Perry	2%
Marco Rubio	6%
Rick Santorum	2%
Donald Trump	11%
Scott Walker	9%
Other (vol)	2%
Wouldn’t vote (vol)	2%
DK/Refused (vol)	10%

 

PRESRB           Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes, ask who [N=139]
Jeb Bush	16%
Ben Carson	1%
Chris Christie	22%
Ted Cruz	4%
Carly Fiorina	0
Lindsey Graham	3%
Mike Huckabee	2%
Bobby Jindal	1%
John Kasich	0
George Pataki	0
Rand Paul	9%
Rick Perry	2%
Marco Rubio	2%
Rick Santorum	4%
Donald Trump	27%
Scott Walker	1%
Other (vol)	2%
Wouldn’t vote (vol)	1%
DK/Refused (vol)	1%

 

I’m going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you  vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 345; MoE 5.5]
Lincoln Chafee	0
Hillary Clinton	63%
Martin O’Maley	3%
Bernie Sanders	15%
Other (vol)	1%
Wouldn’t vote (vol)	3%
DK/Refused (vol)	14%

 

PRESDB                Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes, ask who [precoded] [N = 64]
Lincoln Chafee	14%
Hillary Clinton	29%
Martin O’Maley	24%
Bernie Sanders	11%
Wouldn’t vote (vol)	2%
Other (vol)	13%
DK/Refused (vol)	7%

 

First, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? [Randomize  approve/disapprove]
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	No college grad	College grad +	18-34	35-59	60+
Approve	44	75	34	12	41	47	32	70	42	47	49	44	40
Disapprove	43	13	42	78	44	39	54	15	39	43	32	43	46
DK/Both (vol)	14	12	23	9	15	14	14	14	19	9	19	12	14
Refused (vol)	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1

 

Obama’s second term – job approval, trend

 

In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?[Rotate  right direction/wrong track]
		PID			Gender		Race		Education		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	No college grad	College grad +	18-34	35-59	60+
Right direction	33	53	28	11	35	32	24	52	32	35	38	32	31
Wrong track	52	26	58	82	51	53	63	29	53	51	48	53	55
DK/Both (vol)	14	20	13	6	13	15	12	17	14	14	14	14	13
Refused (vol)	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1

 

Obama’s second term – Right direction/wrong track, trend

Exact Question Wording and Order

 

US1.    First, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)  

 

US2.    In your opinion, do you believe the country is moving in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)  

 

NJ1 through NJ7 released June 23

MJ1 through MJ2 withheld for subsequent release

AC1 through AC6 released June 24

VAC1 through VAC4 withheld for subsequent release

 

Finally, just some questions about yourself…

 

D1       Regardless of who you might vote for, do you consider yourself a….ROTATE… Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Independent [If Independent, ask D1b]

4          Other [DON’T READ]

8          Don’t Know [DON’T READ]

9          Ref [DON’T READ]

 

D1b     Which way do you lean?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Neither

8          DK (Vol)

 

If DEM/LEAN DEM ASK PRESD; IF REPUB/LEAN REPUB ASK PRESR

 

PRESRA           I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1          Jeb Bush

2          Ben Carson

3          Chris Christie

4          Ted Cruz

5          Carly Fiorina

6          Lindsey Graham

7          Mike Huckabee

8          Bobby Jindal

9          John Kasich

10        George Pataki

11        Rand Paul

12        Rick Perry

13        Marco Rubio

14        Rick Santorum

15        Donald Trump

16        Scott Walker

17        Other (vol)

18        Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

 

PRESRB           Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless

who they ran against? If yes, ask who [precoded]

 

PRESDA          I’m going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If

the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST)

1          Hillary Clinton

2          Bernie Sanders

3          Lincoln Chafee

4          Martin O’Maley

5          Other (vol)

8          Wouldn’t vote (vol)

98        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

 

PRESDB          Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes, ask who [precoded]

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		Registered voters N = 792; MoE = +/- 3.7
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	24%
	35-59	41%
	60+	33%
	Refused	2%
Race	White	66%
	African American	11%
	Hispanic	15%
	Asian	3%
	Other/Refused	5%
Union household	Self	13%
	Someone else	11%
	No/Refused/DK	76%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	44%
	Ind/DK/Refused	23%
	Repub	34%