PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

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For immediate release Thursday, January 15, 2015                          7 pp.

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Just 19% Happy During the Christie Years

After five years in office, only one-in-five New Jersey residents believe the Christie years have been good for the average citizen, over half (52%) believe taxes and spending have grown more burdensome, and three-quarters (75%) believe Governor Christie can point to only minor or no real accomplishments since taking office. Additionally, most rate the governor as average compared to his predecessors. These are just a few of the findings from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind that examines perceptions of conditions in the state since Chris Christie became governor.

Residents were polled on New Jersey’s economy, transportation system, government ethics and honesty, environmental conditions, the condition of the state’s major cities, taxes and spending, the state’s reputation to outsiders, and the quality of life for people who live in New Jersey and asked whether conditions have improved, worsened, or remained the same under his watch.

Evaluations of How Conditions in New Jersey have Fared Under Governor Christie

Beginning with economic issues – taxes and spending and the overall health of New Jersey’s economy - residents are decidedly critical of how conditions have fared. Forty-two percent say the economy has grown worse, and over half (52%) say the same about taxes and spending. Democrats are more decisive, although Republicans are not overwhelmingly convinced economic conditions have stayed at least the same or improved under Governor Christie’s watch.

“Voters look to what someone has done in the past for insight into what the future may hold. Many in the state don’t believe the economic conditions have improved while Governor Christie has been in office, and that may complicate his appeal outside New Jersey,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

For the remaining six issues, opinion is either clearly on the side of “status quo” or divided among those who see things about the same or worsening. The numbers suggest that the governor has had little effect on three areas: The state’s transportation system, environmental conditions in the state, and the condition of the state’s major cities. Across these areas, a plurality of respondents say little has changed (47 percent for the state’s transportation system, 50 percent for environmental conditions, and 41 percent for the state’s major cities, respectively).

“Given that Governor Christie was criticized for withdrawing New Jersey’s support from the ARC tunnel to Manhattan and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, it could be good news for the governor that residents don’t feel that he has a lot of impact on transportation and environmental conditions in the state,” said Jenkins.

As for state government ethics and honesty, the state’s reputation to outsiders, and the quality of life for people who live in New Jersey, opinion is equally divided among those who didn’t see any change and those who believe things have grown worse. Around four-in-ten say ethics and honesty in the state have worsened (42%) or remained the same (39%); similar numbers describe those who believe the state’s reputation to outsiders has worsened (39%) or remained the same (36%); and around 40 percent say the lives of people in the state are the same or worse since Governor Christie was sworn into office. Interestingly, women and men differ on this question by a sizable margin. Almost half of all women (45%) say the lives of people in New Jersey have grown worse, compared with just 32 percent of men. A quarter of men (25%) believe conditions have improved for average citizens, with one-in-eight women (13%) who say the same. Across all of these domains, Republicans are less likely to be critical of the governor; however, even the governor’s natural allies seem unimpressed with the pace of positive change in the state over the past five years.

“As Governor Christie has worked to establish himself as a leader on fiscal restraint, tax reform, and economic growth, as well as creating a political environment that’s open and honest, these numbers might sting,” said Jenkins. “Of course, governing is a shared enterprise with the legislature, so it’s hard to lay the blame for these numbers squarely at the feet of the chief executive. But, the governor’s potential candidacy would be an easier sell to unfamiliar outsiders if his constituents believe that their lives are easier now than before he was sworn in, and that corruption in the state has been replaced by transparency and honesty.”

            Around half of residents (47%) believe the governor has had some modest success as governor. An additional 28 percent believe he’s had no real accomplishments since becoming governor. Comparatively fewer (17%) believe he can claim “major” accomplishments while in office.  

“Although the governor may disagree with public sentiment on this measure, clearly his administration has been ineffective in marketing his accomplishments to the public,” said Jenkins.

Finally, when voters compare Governor Christie to his predecessors, the vast majority (64%) puts him in the center of the pack, rating him as decidedly average. One-in-eight (13%) say Christie is among New Jersey’s best governors and 21 percent who think he’s one of the worst.

Opinion on this question is relatively constant across a variety of demographic categories, including among partisans of different stripes. A majority of both Republicans and Democrats say the governor is about average, with Republicans and Democrats offering mirror images of the other on whether the governor has been New Jersey’s best or worst.

“The takeaway from all of these numbers is pretty straightforward: Most New Jerseyans believe time is about the only thing that’s really advanced over the past few years,” said Jenkins.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 803 New Jersey residents was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from January 5 through January 11. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from January 5 through January 11 using a randomly selected sample of 803 adults aged 18 and older in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/-  3.7 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

I’m going to read you some issue areas. For each please just tell me if it has become better or worse  since Chris Christie became governor. First… [randomize}…

 

The economy in New Jersey
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	24%	18	26	33	29	19	23	23	19	25	27	22	22
Worse	42%	48	37	31	36	47	42	40	47	40	40	43	40
Same	32%	31	35	32	33	30	31	33	31	31	29	32	34
DK/Ref (vol)	3%	2	2	4	2	4	3	3	2	3	3	2	4

 

The state’s transportation system
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	16%	17	15	15	19	14	14	21	13	17	20	16	13
Worse	22%	25	26	13	19	24	23	17	28	20	18	22	24
Same	47%	46	46	50	50	44	44	53	44	47	53	48	41
DK/Ref (vol)	15%	12	13	21	12	18	19	9	15	16	9	14	22

 

State government ethics and honesty
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	13%	7	12	21	15	10	14	10	9	14	10	8	21
Worse	42%	51	49	23	39	45	44	40	51	40	41	44	40
Same	39%	37	32	49	41	38	37	43	36	40	41	43	33
DK/Ref (vol)	6%	4	8	6	6	6	6	6	4	7	8	4	6

 

Environmental conditions in the state
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	22%	18	22	28	25	19	21	24	21	23	21	22	22
Worse	20%	29	20	7	19	21	22	17	21	20	17	20	23
Same	50%	47	51	52	50	49	48	54	50	48	54	50	46
DK/Ref (vol)	8%	5	7	11	6	9	9	6	8	1	8	7	9

 

The state’s major cities
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	19%	17	22	22	23	16	17	23	16	20	28	19	11
Worse	31%	33	27	25	31	30	32	29	38	29	23	33	34
Same	41%	45	38	42	40	43	41	42	40	41	41	41	43
DK/Ref (vol)	9%	5	13	11	7	11	11	5	5	10	8	7	11

 

Taxes and spending in the state
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	11%	6	10	21	12	9	11	10	9	12	9	10	13
Worse	52%	58	54	40	50	55	50	55	58	51	47	55	52
Same	32%	32	31	34	33	30	33	31	30	32	35	31	30
DK/Ref (vol)	5%	5	4	5	5	6	6	4	3	6	8	4	4

 

The state’s reputation to outsiders
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	18%	13	17	27	20	16	18	16	15	19	19	15	21
Worse	39%	46	38	30	35	44	41	37	47	38	40	41	37
Same	36%	35	40	36	38	34	34	43	33	36	37	39	32
DK/Ref (vol)	7%	6	4	7	7	6	7	5	5	7	4	5	10

 

The lives of people who live in New Jersey
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Better	19%	13	20	27	25	13	17	20	11	21	23	16	19
Worse	39%	45	40	26	32	45	38	39	49	36	31	42	40
Same	38%	39	36	42	40	37	39	39	35	39	43	39	35
DK/Ref (vol)	5%	3	5	5	3	5	6	2	5	5	4	3	6

 

Since Governor Christie took office in 2009, would you say he’s had major accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as governor?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Major	17%	10	17	30	18	16	18	14	11	19	15	16	20
Minor	47%	46	49	49	49	45	48	47	51	46	44	49	44
None	28%	38	22	13	26	29	26	31	30	27	29	29	26
Both (vol)	3%	2	4	5	3	3	3	4	4	3	4	2	4
DK/Ref (vol)	6%	4	6	3	3	7	6	4	3	5	9	4	5

 

Overall, how would you rate Governor Christie? Has he been one of New Jersey’s best governors, one of its worst, or is he somewhere in the middle?
		PID			Gender		Race		Union household?		Age
	All	Dem	Ind	Repub	Male	Female	White	Non-white	Yes	No	18-34	35-59	60+
Best	13%	7	13	24	16	10	16	8	10	14	10	12	18
Worst	21%	31	17	7	18	25	21	21	33	18	22	22	20
Middle	64%	61	69	67	64	64	61	68	56	66	65	66	60
DK/Ref (vol)	2%	1	2	2	2	1	1	3	1	2	4	1	2

Exact Question Wording and Order

 

US1 and US2 withheld for future release

 

NJ1 through NJ2 released January 13

 

NJ3      Since Governor Christie took office in 2009, would you say he’s had major accomplishments,

minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as governor?

1          Major              

2          Minor

3          No real accomplishments

4          Both major and minor (vol)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused  (vol)

 

NJ4      I’m going to read you some issue areas. For each please just tell me if it has become better or worse or hasn’t changed since Chris Christie became governor. First… [randomize order]…

NJ4A   The economy in New Jersey

NJ4B   The state’s transportation system

NJ4C   State government ethics and honesty

NJ4D   Environmental conditions in the state

NJ4E    The state’s major cities

NJ4F    Taxes and spending in the state

NJ4G   The state’s reputation to outsiders

NJ4H   The lives of people who live in New Jersey

 

1          Better

2          Worse

3          Same

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ5      Overall, how would you rate Governor Christie? Has he been one of New Jersey’s best

governors, one of its worst, or is he somewhere in the middle?

1          Best

2          Worst

3          Middle

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

 

Weighted sample characteristics

		N = 803; MoE = +/- 3.5
Gender	Male	49%
	Female	51%
Age	18-34	25%
	35-59	44%
	60+	29%
	Refused	3%
Race	White	61%
	African American	13%
	Hispanic	15%
	Asian	6%
	Other/Refused	4%
Union household	Self	13%
	Someone else	8%
	No	79%
Party (with leaners)	Dem	45%
	Ind/DK/Refused	28%
	Repub	27%