PublicMind Polling, Surveys, Market Analysis

Loading

Download this release as a PDF document

For immediate release Tuesday, April 21                                4 pages           

Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; kjenkins@fdu.edu

Looking for Friends in All the Wrong Places?

Spring brings little in the way of a warming trend toward Governor Christie as he continues “considering” a potential 2016 run for the White House. His travels to New Hampshire may have brought him new friends there, but according to the most recent statewide poll of registered voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, his constituency back home is not pleased.

Governor Christie’s approval numbers remain unchanged from late February, the last time voters were asked their opinion about his job performance. Right now a third (36%) say they approve of the governor, with an even half (50%) who disapprove. A little over a month ago the numbers were virtually the same – upside down with disapproval (51%) higher than approval (35%).

“The governor is trying to make friends in other states perhaps because he has lost so many in New Jersey. He is upside down with almost every group — men, women, whites, people of color, independents, union and non-union households, and every age group,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind. “With Governor Christie’s attention elsewhere, the public is clearly frustrated with the state’s problems languishing or growing worse.”                           

In fact, the only group whom the governor can rely on for support are the Republicans, or those from his political base. More than half (57%) of Republicans approve of the governor’s job performance.

“They may not offer overwhelmingly enthusiastic praise, but at least Governor Christie maintains a base of support among party loyalists,” said Jenkins. “He seems to be facing what another governor who is considering a run for the White House is facing back home  — declining popularity. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is also upside down in numbers from Marquette University Law School released last week. Half disapprove of his leadership with only about four-in-ten approving. Rising disapproval at home is usually a sign that quitting the day job might be necessary to take on the full time job of campaigning for president.”

It’s also the same story, different day when it comes to how the state’s overall health is perceived. Back in late February, a majority said the state was headed down the wrong track (52%). Significantly fewer expressed optimism (33%). Clearly nothing has changed in the political environment to move the needle as current numbers virtually remain the same. Half (54%) say the state is headed down the wrong track and 35 percent say the opposite.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 785 registered voters in New Jersey was conducted by telephone with both landline and cell phones from April 13 through April 19. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846                For more information, please call 201.692.7032

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from April 13 through April 19 using a randomly selected sample of 785 registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor? [Randomize

approve/disapprove]

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Union household?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Approve

36%

20

33

57

39

33

39

31

27

40

29

39

37

Disapprove

50%

68

55

26

49

50

47

55

57

47

58

44

51

Neither/

Neutral (vol)

8%

6

4

13

8

8

9

6

8

8

4

11

7

DK/Both (vol)

6%

5

6

4

4

7

5

8

7

5

9

4

5

Refused (vol)

1%

1

2

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

 

 

In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Rotate right

direction/wrong track]

 

 

PID

Gender

Race

Union household?

Age

 

All

Dem

Ind

Repub

Male

Female

White

Non-white

Yes

No

18-34

35-59

60+

Right direction

35%

28

31

46

39

30

35

35

27

38

34

37

32

Wrong track

54%

63

54

44

54

54

53

54

65

50

52

54

55

DK/Ref (vol)

11%

10

15

10

7

15

12

11

8

12

14

9

12

 

 

 

 

Exact Question Wording and Order

 

NJ1.     And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is

doing as governor? [Randomize approve/disapprove]

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

3          Neither [vol] or Neutral [vol]

8          DK [vol] or both [vol]

9          Refused (vol)

 

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? [Randomize right direction/wrong track]

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track                

8          DK (vol)         

9          Refused (vol)              

 

           

 

 

Weighted sample characteristics

 

 

Registered voters

N = 785; MoE = +/- 3.5

Gender

Male

49%

 

Female

51%

Age

18-34

24%

 

35-59

42%

 

60+

33%

 

Refused

1%

Race

White

66%

 

African American

13%

 

Hispanic

12%

 

Asian

4%

 

Other/Refused

5%

Union household

Self

13%

 

Someone else

11%

 

No/Refused/DK

76%

Party (with leaners)

Dem

41%

 

Ind/DK/Refused

25%

 

Repub

34%