Decidedly Hard to Decide

Over the weekend, Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind re-interviewed likely voters who were undecided in the past two weeks. Based on those interviews,

• PublicMind cannot say that undecided voters are breaking decisively for either major candidate; however,
• undecided Democratic voters break clearly for Corzine;
• undecided Republican voters break clearly for Forrester.

“In a race that's been extremely negative, people will vote by default for their usual party preference or just stay home,” said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. “But note too that all the polls suggest a repeat of last year's racial divide: that the Republican candidate runs competitively or ahead of the Democrat among white voters and runs way behind among non-white voters.”

The final tally from the two week tracking poll conducted by telephone from October 20 to November 3 shows

• Corzine with 48%,
• Forrester with 44%,
• 2% saying they will vote for someone else, and
• 6% still undecided.

The PublicMind tracking poll of 924 likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from October 20 through November 3. Undecided voters were re-interviewed November 4 and 5.  The margin of error for 924 adults is +/-3.5 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ.  Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Republican Response by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Academic Associate Michael P. Torpey (J.D., Seton Hall University School of Law).

"Forrester is in striking distance and turnout operations could determine the outcome."

Democratic Response by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Academic Associate, Rick Thigpen (J.D., Columbia University Law School).

You can print it now, "CORZINE WINS," margin of victory to be determined later. Forrester is now faced with mounting a two out ninth inning rally or losing. Most significantly, Corzine continues to grab his share of late breaking undecided voters. This trend will be the kiss of death for Forrester.

What will Forrester do to close this gap? He is faced with overcoming a fundamental Republican weakness, their extremely poor performance with non-white voters, who are now approaching 25% of the total electorate. This situation narrows Forrester's options and it provides Corzine with an advantage that will be extremely valuable and extremely difficult to overcome on election day.

When it's all said and done, this poll makes it clear, Corzine wins!

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239
or
Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.