Update on the Shadow Race

see also:
Tabular Results
Survey Details
Republican Response
Democratic Response

The race for governor of New Jersey may be warming up but the shadow race for the Senate is stalled. According to the most recent results from the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, 44% of likely voters have no definite opinion of whom among New Jersey's Congressional Democrats they'd want to take Jon Corzine's US Senate seat. If Corzine were to win his bid for governor, 29% confess they just “don't know” who should replace him in the Senate, while another 15% say “any of them” or “none of them” or “it doesn't matter.”

Even among Democratic voters the big winner with 37% is No Preference as one in four Democrats (25%) say they don't know and another 12% of Democrats suggest “any of them” or “none.”  Among the seven Democrats in New Jersey's Congressional delegation, only Bob Menendez can muster more than a third in state-wide name recognition.

The popular acting governor, Dick Codey, was not included in the poll but was volunteered by 1% of respondents. The acting governor's name recognition is better than 80% and his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion is 3 to 1 (as reported on 9/27).

Better known than any New Jersey Democrat in the House of Representatives is a Republican state senator. Close to half (46%) say they've heard of Tom Kean, Jr., the son of the former governor.

“If Jon Corzine were to win the election for governor, he would redefine New Jersey's Congressional representation by appointing his own successor,” said Peter Woolley, professor of political science and director of the poll. “Part of the calculation for this appointment would be to consider who will reflect well on the new governor,” said Woolley, “and part of the calculation would be who will be able to defend the seat for the Democratic Party.”

The PublicMind poll of 635 registered, likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from September 21 through September 26 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Contacts:

Peter Woolley 973.670.3239
or
Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.